A New Survey On Kashmir Shows Opinions More Split Than Ever

A New Survey On Kashmir Shows Opinions More Split Than Ever 

AN EPILOGUE ANALYSIS: 

This is one survey of public mood in Jammu and Kashmir, on both sides of the Line of Control, which is being reported and discussed in the western and other world media than among the people the findings are all about. Just two percent of the sample, claims the survey, have indicated an option to go with Pakistan. No wonder then, the Pakistani media is hardly touching this finding of the survey and laying stress on another aspect: an average 44 percent of respondents on both sides of LoC favoured independence and this response is further much polarized on Indian side with just less than two one cent in Jammu region hinting such an option. Barring a casual reporting bases on the press release of Chatham House, the London based think-tank, the media in Jammu and Kashmir have not offered enough space to findings or reactions to the opinion poll which the surveyor, a British academic says is the ‘first systematic attempt to establish the opinions of Kashmiris’. 

Commissioned by Dr Saif al Islam al Qadhafi in May 2009 and administered in September 2009, the survey has been conducted by Robert Bradnock of Chatham House who interviewed more than 3,700 people on both sides of the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. Bradnock and the think-tank Chatham House claim that this is the first ever opinion poll to be conducted on both sides of the Line of Control. 

The opinion poll co-designed by Bradnock and Ipsos Mori was administered on conjunction with ‘Facts Worldwide’ (in India) and Aftab Associates (in Pakistan) and face to face interviews with 3774 respondents were conducted September 17 and October 28, 2009 after a pilot survey in August 2009. Surveyors claim that 2374 of total (3774) respondents were from 11 of the 14 undivided districts of Jammu and Kashmir as no one was interviewed in Kupwara in north Kashmir, Pulwama in South Kashmir and the erstwhile Doda district (now comprising districts of Doda, Ramban and Kishtwar). Similarly 1400 respondents were interviewed in seven of the eight districts in Pakistan administered Kashmir (no one was interviewed in Neelum district). Survey was not extended to Gilgit and Baltistan. The respondents on both sides of the Line of Control were predominantly from the urban areas. 

Myths and realities 

Though the survey dispelled many myths and brought to fore stark realities but results have again underlined the fact that Kashmir is more complex a problem than anyone would have thought. A near total majority wants change in the present status of Jammu and Kashmir but the opinion is heavily split on what this change could be. 

Only less than one percent has favoured the status quo but there is no proportion of respondents which can be seen as a majority favouring one option or the other. On both sides of Line of Control only one percent of the respondents have said that would like the status quo to continue. Around 44% of respondents have favoured a complete independence of Jammu and Kashmir on both sides of Line of Control but the results are heavily split. 

Only less than one percent of respondents, shows the results, have indicated their choice for complete independence while 44% respondents in Kashmir Valley, 43% in Pakistan administered Kashmir have said so. What has come as a major surprise and perhaps first time so, 30% of respondents in Leh and 20% in Kargil are claimed to have favoured complete independence. However, when offered option of full integration with India, the response percentage went as high as 67% in Leh and 80% in Kargil favoured joining with India. 

In a highly split intention across the regions, 21% of the respondents said that they would prefer Jammu and Kashmir joining India. Interestingly, one percent of respondents in Pakistan administered Kashmir have also said so. In Jammu and Kashmir this opinion is though 28% but staggered across the regions. Not very surprisingly, 2% in Baramulla and 22% in Anantnag said they would opt for India. 

However, what leaves the analysts baffled is the claim of researchers that survey results showed only 6% in Poonch and none in Rajouri willing to join India. This, though, does not mean that the dominant opinion in Rajouri and Poonch wanted Pakistan to go with Pakistan or independence, the popular mood could be other options like greater autonomy. While 47% in Jammu and 73% in Udhampur stood for India, as high as 67% voters in Leh and 80% in Kargil preferred their options for India. These results may be from individual districts but the questions are about future of while of Jammu and Kashmir. 

While half of the respondents in Pakistan administered Kashmir preferred the region becoming a part of Pakistan, such an option did not find any takers in Jammu and Kashmir. 50% in PaK, with an overwhelming majority of 64% in Bagh district, said they would vote for whole of Jammu and Kashmir to join Pakistan; only two percent responses of this kind could emerge from Jammu and Kashmir and that too from Srinagar and Badgam districts only -6% and 7% respectively. In rest of J&K no one agreed to vote for such an option. 

The surveyors say: “these two options – for the whole of Kashmir to join either India or Pakistan – are the only two options that were envisaged under the UN resolutions proposing a plebiscite in 1948/49. Yet there is no evidence that either joining India or joining Pakistan would come close to obtaining more than a quarter of the total vote”. 

The survey results suggest that the plebiscite proposed by the UN resolutions have relevance in present times. However, there is no clear majority in prospect for independence either. In J&K there is a majority in favour of outright independence for the whole of Kashmir in only four districts, all in Kashmir Valley Division. In five further districts support for independence is 1% or less. Alternative scenarios, as proposed over past few decades like making the LoC into a permanent border received the vote of 14% and was the preferred option for nearly all of those in Poonch and Rajouri districts. In the other districts of PaK and J&K hardly any would prefer this as an option, with the exception of Jammu and Udhampur where those who prefer it are still in the minority. 

Thus while in all the other districts there is a measure of support for reuniting Kashmir, albeit under sometimes completely incompatible scenarios, in Poonch and Rajouri the population clearly would reject outright any reuniting of Kashmir. The remaining options received minimal support. Joint sovereignty, which has been discussed a lot during Musharraf era, attracted a total voting intention of just 2%, the status quo less than 1%. The total lack of voting intention for the status quo indicates how the overwhelming majority of Kashmiris would vote for an alternative political scenario to that which prevails today; it was the one option upon which virtually everyone agreed. Options for the political future 

Importance of Kashmir issue 

Barring Kathua district in Jammu and Sudanhoti in Pakistan administered Kashmir, an overwhelming 80% majority of the respondents said that the Kashmir issue was personally very important to them -82% in J&K and 75% in PaK said this. Such perception was less than 50% in Kathua and Sudanhoti. 

Main issues in regions 

81% respondents on both sides felt that unemployment was among the most serious problems for them -87% in J&K and 66% in PaK said this. An overwhelming majority of 68% respondents in Jammu and Kashmir felt that there were high levels of corruption in the government while only 22% per cent had such an opinion in Pakistan administered Kashmir. 42% in PaK and 45% in J&K talked about poor economic development; 19% in PaK and 43% in J&K listed violation of human rights as one of the serious problems. 

Political processes and elections 

An overwhelming majority particularly in Jammu and Kashmir appreciated talks between India and Pakistan and reposed faith in the dialogue process but, surprisingly most of them did not know what these talks were all about; they lacked a detailed knowledge. Around 75% knew that some talks were being held but only 6% had an idea that the peace process began in 2003 and what all it constituted. 55% of respondents in Jammu and Kashmir and 30% in Pakistan administered Kashmir felt that talks had increased their safety and a cumulative 48% of respondents believed that talks had improved the chances of peace in the region. 

Survey suggests that a significant majority on both sides of Line of Control sees the electoral process has contribution to make to the peace process. In an endorsement of Indian approach of voter participation in elections as signs of peace, over half of the respondents in Jammu and Kashmir felt that State Assembly elections in 2008 and subsequently Lok Sabha elections 2009 improved the chances of peace. Such a response was at 41% in the Pakistan administered Kashmir where respondents thought that Pakistan national elections of 2008 enhanced the chances of peace. Only 34% felt that State Assembly elections in Pakistan administered Kashmir had anything to do with improving the chances of peace in the region. 

36% in total across both sides of the LoC, believed that militant violence would be less likely to solve the Kashmir dispute, compared with nearly a quarter, 24%, who thought it would be more likely to. In J&K only 20% thought militant violence would help solve the dispute, compared to 39% who thought it would make a solution less likely. However, in PaK 37% thought militant violence would be more likely to solve the dispute, against 31% who thought it would make a solution less likely. Overall 34% thought militant violence would make no difference to finding a solution, 30% in PaK and 36% in J&K. 

Attitudes towards LoC and security concerns 

Five years after opening the Line of Control for limited travel, only one percent of the respondents to this survey confirmed that they visited either side of the divide. 8% of the respondents claimed to have friends or family living on the other side of the LoC but only 1% of the total population had visited in the last five years. Less than 5% knew anyone who had crossed the LoC in the last five years. Respondents were asked a series of questions about their attitudes to the Line of Control. Survey report says attitudes were nuanced. 

Overall, a majority of the total population, 58%,, were prepared to accept the LoC as a permanent border if it could be liberalized for people and/or trade to move across it freely, and a further 27% were in favour of it in its current form. Only 8% said they were not in favour of the LoC becoming a permanent border in any form – 7% in PaK and 9% in J&K, with the highest level of opposition in Anantnag District at 14%,, in J&K and in Bagh District, at 18%,, in PaK. 

There is widespread opposition to the requirement for a permit or passport to cross the LoC. Only 43% support Kashmiris having to use permits or passports – 57% in AJK and 38% in J&K. In J&K support is strongest in Jammu and Ladakh Divisions (aa high as 80% in Kathua and 84% in Leh), and weakest in Kashmir Valley Division (bb 10% and 41%)).. 

Around 765 of the respondents supported the removal of all mines on both sides of the LoC (881% in PaK and 75% in J&K). In J&K support for removal is strongest in the Kashmir Valley Division and along the LoC itself in Poonch and Rajouri. 

Even more strikingly, 56% say they would support the removal of all weapons from both sides of the border (771% in PaK and 50% in J&K). In J&K there are wide variations between districts in support for the removal of weapons. In the Kashmir Valley and Ladakh support for their removal runs typically at or over 80%,, while in Jammu Division support is well below 20%,, with the exception of Jammu itself where it stands at 21%..

It is widely believed that the withdrawal of both Indian and Pakistani security forces would help bring a solution. Two-thirds (666%)) in J&K think the removal of Indian security forces will help bring peace, though there is a gulf between Kashmir Valley Division and parts of Jammu and Ladakh Divisions. In Kathua and Udhampur 1% and 8% respectively think it will help, and in Leh and Kargil about 40% do. In PaK 78% think the withdrawal of Indian troops will speed peace. 

But 52% in PaK also think the withdrawal of Pakistani security forces will improve the chances of peace, while in Indian side of J&K the figure rises to 82%.. In J&K this belief is around 80% in most districts except Ladakh Division and Baramula (59%). 

An end to all militant activity is also seen as very important. In J&K, 77% of the population think an end to militant violence will help to bring a solution – highest in Kashmir Valley Division, but strong everywhere except Poonch and Rajouri, where the overwhelming majority do not believe that this holds the key to resolution.